A new Version of Integrated Assessment Model MERGE

Document Type: Original Research Paper

Authors

1 Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of RAS, 16 S.Kovalevskaya st., Ekaterinburg, 620990, Russia

2 Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of RAS, 29 Moskovskaya st., Ekaterinburg, 620014, Russia

Abstract

The optimization Model for Evaluating Regional and Global Effects of greenhouse gases reduction
policies named MERGE is an actively usable tool for studying some aspects of the problem of climate change.
It is first of all destined for the quantitative estimation of emission trajectories and results of applying
abatement measures. In the paper, the emphasis is on the adaptation of the integrated assessment model
MERGE to the modern state of the world and regional economy and on the analysis of possibilities of Russia’s
participation in some Kyoto-type initiatives on greenhouse gases emission reduction under different
assumptions on the dynamics of regional economic-energetic indices. Calculations with the MERGE model
demonstrated the attainability of the national emission targets: stabilizing the carbon dioxide emissions at 75
per cent of the 1990 level by 2020 with further reducing to 70 per cent by 2030. Some trends in the structure
of energy sector and fossil fuel exports are also analyzed.

Keywords