Future Projections of Urban Waste Flows aand their Impacts in African Metropolises Cities


1 National Water and Sewerage Corporation, P. O. Box 7053, Kampala, Uganda

2 Environmental Systems Analysis group/Environmental Policy group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, Netherlands


This paper presents future trends of urban wastes and their impacts on the environment of African cities using plausible mitigation scenarios. To accomplish this, an integrated dynamic model for urban waste flows was developed, tested, calibrated and validated. Its parameter sensitivity was analyzed. Using population projection up to 2052 with different levels of technological implementation, policy enforcement and awareness raising, four runs were executed. The “business as usual” run showed that with no additional mitigation measures, the environmental quality in Kampala and Dar es salaam Cities deteriorates. The “more enforcement” and “more collection” scenarios showed good reduction in environmental loads but they perform less well in resource recovery. The “proper management” scenario that combines enhanced technological implementation, awareness raising and policy enforcement, produced the smallest environmental loads, and recovered the largest amount of resources. Thus, the city authorities, general public, community based organisations and Non-governmental organizations would have to increase their efforts in finances and commitment to improve the urban environmental quality and increase resource recovery.